As I (and many others) have been noting for many months now, the official end of the federal Public Health Emergency (PHE), whenever it happens, will presumably bring with it reason to celebrate...but will also likely create a new disaster at the same time:
What goes up usually goes back down eventually, and that's likely to be the case with Medicaid enrollment as soon as the public health crisis formally ends...whenever that may be.
Well, yesterday Ryan Levi and Dan Gorenstein of of the Tradeoffs healthcare policy podcast posted a new episode which attempts to dig into just when that might be, how many people could be kicked off of the program once that time comes and how to mitigate the fallout (I should note that they actually reference my own estimate in the program notes):
TRENTON — Building on the Murphy Administration’s efforts to expand access to affordable health coverage, Governor Murphy signed legislation (A-674/S-1646) on June 30 creating the New Jersey Easy Enrollment Health Insurance Program to make it easier for residents to obtain health insurance through Get Covered New Jersey, the State's official health insurance marketplace.
“New Jersey has made great strides in ensuring more residents have access to affordable health insurance. More than 324,000 New Jerseyans signed up for health coverage through Get Covered New Jersey during the Affordable Care Act Open Enrollment Period—a record high in New Jersey,” said Department of Banking and Insurance Commissioner Marlene Caride. “I want to thank Governor Murphy for signing the New Jersey Easy Enrollment Health Insurance Program into law—this is another step forward that reduces barriers to health coverage. Enrolling more residents in health plans will lead to better health outcomes for New Jersey families.”
ALBANY, N.Y. (July 11, 2022) – NY State of Health, the state’s official health plan Marketplace, today released Health Insurance Coverage Update: Impact of ARPA Subsidies. The enrollment report, which compares data from March 2020 to May 2022, describes how millions of New Yorkers have benefitted from access to affordable, comprehensive coverage through the Marketplace thanks to flexibilities permitted during the Federal COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) and ARPA premium subsidies. Currently, federal enhanced subsidies do not extend into 2023 and New York’s uninsured rate is expected to rise, reversing the progress in insurance coverage made since the start of the pandemic.
Action on climate change and clean energy remains more urgent than ever.
So let me be clear: If the Senate will not move to tackle the climate crisis and strengthen our domestic clean energy industry, I will take strong executive action to meet this moment. My actions will create jobs, improve our energy security, bolster domestic manufacturing and supply chains, protect us from oil and gas price hikes in the future, and address climate change. I will not back down: The opportunity to create jobs and build a clean energy future is too important to relent.
I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census including all ages (i.e., it includes kids under 12).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
WASHINGTON — Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and his staff told Democratic leadership on Thursday that he's not willing to support major climate and tax provisions in a sweeping Biden agenda bill, according to a Democrat briefed on the conversations.
Instead, Manchin, a key centrist who holds the swing vote in the 50-50 Senate, said he is willing to back only a filibuster-proof economic bill with drug pricing and a two-year extension of funding under the Affordable Care Act, the source said.
Manchin's move upends lengthy negotiations with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., most likely forcing the party to scrap climate change policies and new taxes and delivering a major blow to some of President Joe Biden's priorities heading into an already challenging midterm election landscape for Democrats this fall.
With Congress scheduled to recess at the end of July, and health insurance marketplaces finalizing their rates for the 2023 coverage year, timely action to decide on the future of the American Rescue Plan’s benefits is critical.
The law, which provides increased and expanded federal financial assistance and helped millions of Americans sign up for health insurance through the Affordable Care Act, is set to expire at the end of this year.
An estimated 220,000 Californians could become uninsured, with premiums doubling for 1 million low-income consumers.
Middle-income consumers would lose all federal financial help, and their premiums would increase by an average of $272 per month if Congress does not act to extend the law.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) is gauging support among House centrists for a counteroffer to the emerging Senate reconciliation package, with one big clause: No new taxes.
Why it matters: Any attempt to modify a deal that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may reach with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) could scuttle the entire package. That could deprive President Biden — and vulnerable lawmakers — of a pre-election win at a time of real weakness.
Gottheimer's discussions target a small group that includes Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.), Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Susie Lee (D-Nev.) Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.).
...Gottheimer's formula would leave $177 billion for deficit reduction — a step toward Manchin but a long way from his roughly $500 billion target.
...After declaring Biden’s original $2.2 trillion social spending and climate package dead last December, Manchin revived talks with Schumer on a much smaller deal this spring, and the two sides are continuing their negotiations.
