Estimated Exchange QHPs as of April 15, 2014: 7.78M

Estimated Total, all sources: (14.1 M - 26.1 M)*

Individual QHP Range: (7.24M - 15.58M)  •  Medicaid/CHIP (5.23M - 7.29M)

ESIs (106K documented)  •  Sub26ers (1.60M - 3.10M)

(OFF-Exch. ESIs: 34K confirmed; Rand study finds up to 8.2M more possible)

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OK, this doesn't really change the numbers beyond a couple hundred, but it's encouragingto see that my "15% in Non-Expansion States" rule of thumb for estimating the number of people who fall into the "woodworker" category seems to be pretty accurate, at least in Indiana:

Even without expanding eligibility for Indiana Medicaid, the program had enrolled 40,577 more Hoosiers as of March than it had in the same month last year.

More than 15,000 of that year-over-year increase occurred in March alone this year, as a flood of people here and nationally sought coverage before Obamacare would hit them with a tax for going uninsured.

If you take a look at the Medicaid Spreadsheet, you'll see that I currently have the "woodworker" tally for Indiana at 40,951...only 374 more than the number reported above.

That 40,951 is 15% of the combined total number of new Medicaid enrollments for Indiana from both the HC.gov website as well as through traditional state Medicaid agency offices (273,005).

OK, the various ACA exchanges are just messing with my head now.

First, Nevada announced that they've extended their enrollment out to May 30 for those who started by March 31st.

Then Oregon announced that they've extended full open enrollment out to April 30.

Then I found out that anyone who submitted a paper application by April 7th in any of the 36 states run by HC.gov still have until April 30 to finish.

Colorado, I've discovered, is allowing people who applied for Medicaid but were denied up until May 31st to finish their enrollment process.

And, of course, Massachusetts has over 200K "Limbo Status" people who may (theoretically) get squared away as late as June 30.

Late last night I learned that Hawaii has bumped their extension deadline out to April 30.

I said I'd keep the poll for the "woodworker" terminology open until tonight, but until I decide what to do about it I'll be continuing to use that term for consistency.

This article from Kaiser Health News brings solid numbers for Colorado, but also gives other good info about the Medicaid situation. For instance, they give a simple explanation of where the term comes from...

Hundreds of thousands of those people were already eligible and could have signed up even before the Affordable Care Act made it much more generous.

They came “out of the woodwork” to get enrolled, analysts say, thanks to the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate and publicity around its new marketplaces.

...then they give the exact number in Colorado...though only through the end of February...

Oh for the love of...(sigh) Look, I'm all for letting as many people as possible enroll in healthcare coverage, but even I admit that I'm getting awfully tired of having to change the final, FINAL deadline dates.

The Hawaii Health Connector has extended the  initial grace period— which would have ended on Tuesday — given to individuals in need of extra time completing the enrollment application process for health insurance by a couple of weeks to April 30.

Let's just hope they resolve their Heartbleed issue.

Every person counts...up to 8,182 through 4/12:

Total for the period of Apr. 6, 2014 through Apr. 12, 2014

Total since October 1, 2013

29,314 Applications completed in the Individual Marketplace
8,182 Enrollments in the Individual Marketplace

In recent weeks, several people have requested that I stop using the term "woodworkers" to describe those who were already qualified for Medicaid prior to ACA expansion but who have only enrolled since October 1st, for a variety of reasons.

The reasons for this may include not being aware that they qualified for Medicaid already; not knowing how to go through the (sometimes cumbersome processof applying/enrolling; feeling a stigma or sense of embarrassment about going on Medicaid; or other reasons. The reason these folks (around 2 million of them by my estimate) are referred to as "woodworkers" is because they've basically "come out of the woodwork" to enroll in every state (not just expansion states) over the past 6 months.

I do not mean to be offensive by using this term, but apparently some people feel it's derogatory. A few people have suggested that I switch to the term "Welcome Mat Enrollees"...as in, the HHS and state agencies have "put out the welcome mat" for these folks by streamlining the process and increasing awareness of the Medicaid & CHIP programs, who qualifies and how to apply.

I'm kind of torn here, so for the moment I'm just putting out a poll to see how regular readers of this site feel about it. I'm not promising that I'll change the description that I'm using, but I will at least take your comments and thoughts on the subject seriously.

I'll leave the poll up until Wednesday evening to see if there's a strong lean one way or the other (or possibly some other descriptive term which seems appropriate).

UPDATE: I see that there are several comments on this topic under other blog entries. I wasn't going to allow comments on the poll itself or not since I felt it might be a contentious issue, but so far the comments and emails I've received have been quite civil, so I'm opening it up for comments. I'll keep the poll open until tomorrow evening.

Leigh McGivern of coOportunity Health has helpfully provided their final (well, near-final...through 4/14) tallies for both on- and off-exchange enrollments. The exchange-based numbers aren't really relevant to me since those are reported by HHS, but the off-exchange QHPs and ESI's are vital:

IOWA

  • Individual/Family members: 18,358 (10,809 on exchange/7,549 off exchange)
  • Small group members: 7,848
  • Large group members: 274

NEBRASKA

  • Individual/Family members: 30,668 (20,308 on exchange/10,360 off exchange)
  • Small group members: 11,292
  • Large group members: 2,774

TOTAL ON EXCHANGE IOWA AND NEBRASKA (individuals/families): 31,117

TOTAL OFF EXCHANGE IOWA AND NEBRASKA (individuals/families): 17,909

TOTAL BUSINESS (employees and dependents) IOWA AND NEBRASKA: 22,188

TOTAL BOTH STATES ON AND OFF EXCHANGE (individuals/families/businesses): 71,214

This represents increases as follows:

This doesn't change the actual total number of Rhode Island's Medicaid expansion numbers, but it does specify the ratio between "strict expansion" and the "woodworker" enrollees...66% to 34%. Interestingly, this is virtually identical to the Washington State ratio (again, 67% to 33%).

This isn't enough to apply to the other expansion states yet, but if it does prove to be the case, that should be helpful in figuring out how accurate my current estimates are. I currently have "strict expansion" at roughly 3.7 million, while "woodworkers" are at 2.05 million. A strict 67/33 ratio would have the "woodworker" number at around 1.82 million...except that the non-expansion states also have some woodworkers as well, which should account for the additional 230K or so.

Figures obtained from the Chafee administration by WPRI.com show that out of the 64,590 Rhode Islanders who signed up for Medicaid from October through March using the state’s new HealthSource RI marketplace, 34% were eligible before the new law expanded the rules for who could sign up.

A few days ago, Michigan's newly-expanded Medicaid tally sat at around 32,000, plus another 54,000 people transferred into the program from an existing state-run one, for a total of about 86,000 people.

Today that number has grown to over 109K:

Healthy Michigan Plan Enrollment Statistics

• Updated every Tuesday at 3 p.m.

Total Healthy Michigan Plan Beneficiaries (including ABW transition prior to April 1): 109,228

Total Enrollment in Healthy Michigan Plan after April 1: 72,921

*Statistics as of April 15, 2014

No breakout between Private QHPs & Medicaid/CHIP yet, but NY State of Health just issued this press release:

ALBANY, NY (April 15, 2014) – NY State of Health (NYSOH), the State’s official health plan marketplace, reported that as of 9 a.m. today, 1,311,271 New Yorkers have completed their applications and 949,428 have enrolled for coverage since the launch of the Marketplace on October 1, 2013. More than 70 percent of those who have enrolled to date were uninsured at the time of application. The Marketplace is well on its way to meeting or exceeding its enrollment goal of 1.1 million people by the end of 2016.

This figure is about 16,200 higher than just 4 days ago, meaning NY is averaging around 4K/day. Assuming no final day spike (or drop-off), their final total should come in at around 954,000 people.

Not gonna update the spreadsheet or graph until I get the actual QHP/Medicaid breakout, however, since those are almost always provided within a few hours of the combined number in NY.

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