Confirmed 2015 QHPs: 3,503,387 as of 12/18/14
Estimated 2015 QHPs (Cumulative):
610K (462K HCgov) • 11/28: 1.02M (765K HCgov) • 12/05: 1.80M (1.35M HCgov)
12/12: 3.26M (2.46M HCgov) • 12/15: 4.70M (3.52M HCgov)
12/19: 7.72M (5.79M HCgov) - Assumes Autorenewals Included

state-level projections

FINAL 2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 6.7M Current / 8.4M PAID / 9.6M Total
TOTAL: 6.7M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 10.7M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted

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January Enrollment Deadline Status

The enrollment deadline for January coverage has passed in most states, but you have a few days to still get January coverage if you started the process by 12/15 in California (complete by 12/21), Colorado (no specific cut-off given) or Connecticut (12/19). Residents of the 37 states operating off of can still arrange for January coverage if they left their callback/contact info with the federal exchange by midnight on 12/15.

Residents of the following states still have time to enroll for January 1st coverage:

Idaho (12/20); Massachusetts (12/23); Minnesota (12/31); New York (12/20); Rhode Island (12/23); Vermont (12/31) and Washington State (12/23).

Residents of ALL state (+DC) can still enroll for policies starting on February 1st until 1/15/15.

When I made my original projection of 12.0 million QHP selections by 2/15/15, I assumed that roughly 6.1 million of the 6.7 million current 2014 enrollees would re-up via one of three methods:

  • Actively logging into their existing account and renewing their current policy/switching to a different one
  • Actively creating a new account (in states like MA, MD, OR & NV) and enrolling the same/a different policy for 2015
  • Taking no action whatsoever and being automatically re-enrolled in their current account (or one nearly identical if the current one is no longer available).

In other words, I was operating on the assumption that roughly 6.1 million (91%) of current enrollees would stay on board one way or another, plus another 5.9 million new folks signing up for the first time.

Open enrollment weekly updates

The Insurance Division will collect enrollment information from carriers each week throughout 2015 open enrollment. Updated numbers will be posted each week on this web page.

Members enrolled,

  • Nov. 15-Dec. 14
  • On 40,581
  • Outside of 26,799
  • Total 67,380​

About the data: Enrolled means a person has selected a plan. Consumers must pay the first month's premium for their coverage to become effective. These numbers do not identify whether the first month's premium has been paid. These numbers do not include Oregonians enrolled in the Oregon Health Plan (Medicaid).

This updated from Oregon doesn't increase the total on the spreadsheet or graph, because it's already included in the reports, but it's important for other reasons, including:

OK, it looks like my theory about MA's "QHPs as % of Determinations" theory was wrong; I assumed that it would have started increasing from 50% over the past week, intstead it dropped to about 48% (or held steady at 52% if you include the "plans in cart" which neither I nor the MA exchange is doing anyway).

Therefore, the bad news is that the official total is around 8,300 fewer than I thought: 53,490 thorugh yesterday. The good news is that this is still an excellent number, and there's still tens of thousands of people who've started the process who have until next Tuesday to wrap it up.

In addition, remember my snark from 11/16 about "ONLY 3.5% HAVE PAID!!"? Well, guess what: That percentage is up to 34%, and they still have 5 days to pay (I presume they're dealing with a flood of payments at the moment).

The Medicaid tally holds at 98,530 since it doesn't include yesterday.


More Than 136,000 Marylanders Have Enrolled for Jan. 1 Coverage in State’s Health Insurance Marketplace

December 19th, 2014

ANNAPOLIS, MD – Governor O’Malley announced today that Maryland Health Connection, the state-based health insurance marketplace for individuals, families and small businesses, enrolled 136,685 individuals from the start of open enrollment onNov. 15 to last night’s deadline for coverage that begins Jan. 1.

That total includes 79,987 people signed up for private Qualified Health Plans (QHPs). More than three-quarters of QHP enrollees, or 61,448, are eligible for an Advanced Premium Tax Credit (APTC) — upfront financial assistance to reduce their monthly insurance premiums. An additional 56,698 have enrolled in Medicaid since Nov. 15 through Maryland Health Connection. Open enrollment continues through Feb. 15, 2015.

(sigh) This is gonna be a lonnnng month for me...

MNsure Extends Enrollment Deadline for January 1 Coverage to December 31

MNsure sent this bulletin at 12/19/2014 11:34 AM CST

December 19, 2014


MNsure Extends Enrollment Deadline for January 1 Coverage to December 31
Decision follows transfer of enrollment information to insurance carriers and aligns enrollment deadlines for January 1 coverage

ST. PAUL, Minn.—In an effort to provide more time for Minnesotans who qualify for financial help available only through MNsure, the organization today announced it would extend the enrollment deadline to December 31 for January 1 coverage.

Minnesotans must now enroll in coverage through MNsure by noon on Wednesday, December 31, to have their coverage effective on January 1, 2015. The change comes at a time of high interest in MNsure and as many health insurance companies recently extended their own enrollment deadlines for January 1 coverage.


Margot Sanger-Katz has a fascinating story today about the "woodworker" effect in non-expansion states. I've written about woodworkers many times before; the short version is, these are people who were already eligible for Medicaid even before/without the ACA expansion provisions, but who never actually enrolled in the program for any number of reasons. Their reasons could be personal (embarrassment/shame over taking a "handout"), it could be because they didn't know that they were eligible (the rules vary from state to state), it could be because the enrollment process is too confusing (again, not an easy process in some states).

NOTE: I've decided to start posting my "Nightly Update" newsletters here on the site itself, since they sometimes are basically full posts themselves. Case in point...

As I noted this morning, between a serious backlog with my website clients (that's right, this isn't supposed to be my day job) and the fact that just about all of the state exchanges are updated to within the past few days, it was pretty light posting today. There were a few notable developments, however:

MA's deadline for January coverage isn't until Tuesday the 23rd, so they've been holding pretty steady, although the numbers are definitely moving up gradually (note that they did have a mini-spike on Monday as well). Speaking of January enrollment deadlines...

  • Maryland's Deadline is Tonight at Midnight!

I didn't post anything about this beyond highlighting MD on the home page of the site, but it's worth noting, since I'm assuming they'll have a Big Press Release tomorrow with their total numbers.

For comparison, they reported 61K QHPs (and 41.9K Medicaid additions) as of 12/15. To reach the HHS's "30% over 2014" target, they'll have to hit 88K by February 15th, or 101K to reach my own "50% over 2014" target for Maryland, so they're doing very well so far.

From the report:

  • The 51 states (including the District of Columbia) that provided enrollment data for October 2014 reported nearly 68.5 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP. This enrollment count is point-in-time (on the last day of the month) and includes all enrollees in the Medicaid and CHIP programs who are receiving a comprehensive benefit package.
  • 428,311 additional people were enrolled in October 2014 as compared to September 2014 in the 51 states that reported comparable September and August data.

(And yes, the "51 states" wording is CMS's, not mine)

Chalk up another 4,433 QHP eligibility determinations for MA yesterday. Assuming 60% of those have selected a plan, the cumulative total for 2015 should be up to around 61,800 people to date.

As of mid-April, Massachusetts had only enrolled a total of 31,695 people. That means that assuming I'm close, the Bay State should double their 2014 QHP enrollment by tomorrow.

In addition, their Medicaid enrollments are closing in quickly on the 100K mark (98,530), and should easily cross it tomorrow as well.

Exhibit A: I'm way behind on several projects from, you know, my day job.

Exhibit B: As you can see from The Spreadsheet, the enrollment data from every one of the state-based exchanges is current within the past week (WA is from 12/10, VT from 12/11, RI from 12/13 and all others are from the 14th, 15th or 16th).

Therefore, aside from the daily dashboard from Massachusetts (or if there's some huge ACA enrollment development), I'm taking the day off.

Meanwhile, if anyone is feeling generous, donations are always appreciated...