Confirmed 2015 QHPs: 534,000 as of 11/27/14
Estimated 2015 QHPs: 610,000 as of 11/21/14
Estimated 2015 QHPs: 1,040,000 as of 11/28/14


2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 6.7M Current / 8.3M PAID / 9.6M Total

Estimated Total, all sources: appx. 27 Million
(6.7M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 11.0M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted)

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On November 24th I took a shot at estimating how many 2015 QHP (qualified health plans) had been enrolled in as of the first week of the new open enrollment period. Based on the extremely limited data I had available from a handful of state exchanges, I internally estimated it was probably close to 500,000 nationally...but in the interest of caution, publicly went with 410,000.

Two days later, the HHS surprised everyone with an announcement that the actual number for the first 7 days was 462,000...for Healthcare.Gov alone.

Since around 75% of the total enrollments are likely to come from the federal exchange (Oregon and Nevada have been added to it, adding 109,000 current enrollees, while Idaho has moved off onto their own exchange with only 76,000 currently enrolled), a simple extrapolation suggests that the *total* number as of 11/21 was actually more like 610,000.

OK, I wasn't quite sure how to deal with the Medicaid Graph this year. On the one hand, there isn't any deadline or "open enrollment" period for enrolling in Medicaid/CHIP; it's year-round. On the other hand, there simply wasn't room to just keep the 2014 Graph running continuously, at least without making the relative scale between the QHP and Medicaid graphs completely out of whack.

In addition, as I noted when the September CMS Medicaid/CHIP report came out, my own estimate seemed to be running around 4.5% too high compared to the official government figures (they had 9.1 million + 950K from prior to 2014 as of 9/30 (around 10.05 million); I had it down as around 10.5 million, or 450K higher.

Therefore, I'm resolving both issues by picking up the 2015 graph right where the 2014 graph left off...but I've also knocked a couple hundred thousand off in order to at least partially account for the discrepancy. As a result, if you try putting the two side by side, there will be a mis-match of a few hundred thousand, but I can live with that.

In any event, here's what it looks like at the moment:

Alaska:

On the campaign trail, Bill Walker made expanding the state’s Medicaid program under the Affordable Care Act one of his top priorities. He said he could make the decision without input from the state legislature:

“It’s up to the Governor to accept that.”

But when Walker takes office next month, will it really be so easy to expand a program that has been a tough sell in other conservative states?

Medicaid expansion would allow around 40,000 low income Alaskans– mostly childless adults, to receive health benefits. The federal government will pay 100 percent of the program until the end of 2016. After that, the state’s share will slowly increase to 10 percent by 2020. Walker has said the decision is a no-brainer, at least while the federal government is providing full funding.

Wyoming:

With a plan released Wednesday by the administration of Gov. Matt Mead, a Republican, Wyoming has become the latest state seeking to expand Medicaid.

Massachusetts continues to kick butt this time around in general, but I particularly like that they're providing a daily breakout of their enrollment data. Check today's out, which includes both Wednesday and Thanksgiving Thursday:

This story from the 27th isn't an official number, but it's consistant with the formal press release from a few days earlier which had CO's tally at 6,144 as of 11/22:

Enrollment in Connect for Health Colorado, a health-insurance exchange, opened Nov. 15, and more than 8,000 people are already enrolled. Only about 200 people had enrolled during the same period last year, according to a release from Connect for Health Colorado.

...Many residents re-enrolled this month, he said, and there are a “significant” number of new enrollees.

As I keep hammering over and over, asking "How many have PAID??" is a perfectly reasonable question to ask...as long as you a) wait until after the payments in question are actually due and b) you make sure to be as comprehensive as possible, since payment rates can vary from state to state or even insurer to insurer.

If you don't, you end up with a big ol' pile of crap like the infamous GOP House Energy & Commerce Committee "report" from back in April which tried to claim only a 67% first month payment rate when the actual rate ended up being around 88%.

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